Electric car or gasoline car? What is the future direction for heavy trucks

     In the past few years, the government has increased its policy efforts to encourage and support the development of the new energy medium and heavy truck
 market, including exploring and promoting zero emission pilot projects for regional freight heavy trucks, creating clean transportation restrictions, and creating
 leading areas for clean transportation. High energy consuming enterprises such as steel, coal-fired power, and ports are also vigorously responding to policy
 requirements by purchasing new energy medium and heavy trucks. In addition, urban and suburban infrastructure projects have relatively high environmental
 protection requirements.

      Therefore, the market demand for new energy vehicle models continues to rise. Since 2020, the global new energy medium and heavy truck market has entered
 an upward period, achieving "three consecutive increases". In 2023, there were 7745 insured vehicles in the North American new energy medium and heavy
 truck market, a year-on-year increase of 34.4%, and the market penetration rate reached 5.6%.

   In the new energy medium and heavy truck market, the pure electric technology route has the largest market share and has always maintained a dominant position.
 In 2023, the total insurance coverage of pure electric vehicles was 32102, accounting for as much as 85%. However, there are two types of energy replenishment
 methods: charging and swapping. So which energy replenishment method will dominate in the future?

  Similarly, let's first look at the sales data. In 2023, the total number of insured vehicles in the pure electric medium and heavy truck market was 2102, of which 7410
were rechargeable medium and heavy trucks, accounting for 54.2%; The sales volume of medium and heavy trucks for battery swapping was 4692 units, accounting
 for 45.8%. From a data perspective, the two energy replenishment methods can be considered as evenly distributed.

  Whether it is charging or swapping, it cannot be denied that currently, "limited range" is still the biggest problem faced by pure electric medium and heavy trucks.
Therefore, from the perspective of transportation scenarios, pure electric heavy-duty trucks mainly deal with some closed scenarios and short distance
 high-frequency transportation markets, while charging and swapping modes have different advantages and disadvantages.

  The biggest advantage of the battery swapping mode is its fast energy replenishment. It only takes 3-5 minutes to change the battery, which is comparable to the
 refueling time of traditional fuel vehicles; The battery swapping station can also achieve "separation of vehicle and electricity", allowing users to rent batteries
 and reduce the cost of purchasing a car, which is on par with the cost of purchasing a traditional fuel powered vehicle.

  The operator of the battery swapping station can better manage and maintain the batteries, which can extend their lifespan and increase their safety; It can be
charged during the low valley period, avoiding the peak electricity consumption period, and minimizing electricity costs as much as possible. With sufficient
battery capacity, it can even achieve "peak shaving and valley filling" by dynamically charging and replenishing energy according to the peak valley of the power grid.

  In addition, the battery swapping station can adjust the charging capacity according to actual needs. For example, if the daily transportation distance of the vehicle
is 100 kilometers, 50% of the battery capacity is sufficient for one round trip, and 20% of the backup power is left. That is to say, if the total battery capacity exceeds
 70%, it can meet the needs of a single round trip. In order to increase the frequency of battery swapping, the battery can be flexibly recharged to 70% to improve
 operational efficiency. But swapping heavy trucks also has pain points.